Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a sweltering July 11, 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station expected to record peak daytime highs typical of the monsoon season. On Polymarket, this weather contract trades at 0% probability for the YES outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not breach the specific threshold defined in the market terms, despite forecasts showing daily highs ranging from 25°C to 30°C with occasional spikes into the mid-30s°C [2][5].

Historical July data for Seoul establishes a baseline where average highs hover in the upper 20s°C, yet intense heatwaves can push temperatures toward 35°C when humidity exceeds 80% [2][4]. The current 0% pricing suggests traders are confident that a record-breaking heat event will not occur on this specific date, aligning with the pattern that July is the wettest month with nearly 400mm of precipitation often disrupting sustained high-temperature spells [2]. While days in the low 30s°C are common, the market’s zero valuation reflects a lack of immediate catalysts for an extreme outlier event.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain intensity, as these directly influence peak temperatures [8][9]. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground data for the Incheon station, meaning any discrepancy between local Seoul forecasts and airport readings could impact resolution [1]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 11 July, the final USDC payout on the Polygon network will depend entirely on the recorded Celsius value at that specific location, making real-time weather updates the primary dependency for conditional token holders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.