Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a critical heat check today as traders on Polymarket price the “Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13” contract at 0% YES, implying the crowd expects no extreme spike at Incheon Intl Airport Station. The market, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, hinges on Wunderground’s daily high for RKSI, with settlement locking at 12:00 UTC on 13 July 2026.

Historical precedent frames this near-zero probability: July 2025 was South Korea’s second-hottest July since 1973, averaging 27.1°C nationwide, while Seoul hit 37.7°C in early July 2024—the hottest early-July reading in 117 years [3][6]. Yet Incheon’s airport station typically records slightly lower peaks than central Seoul, and daily highs in July rarely exceed 35°C there, rarely breaching 38°C [5]. The 0% price suggests traders view a record-breaking day as statistically improbable given current patterns.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s hourly updates and Wunderground’s live RKSI feed as the day progresses, since tropical nights and sustained heatwaves can push temperatures higher unexpectedly [2]. A sudden shift in monsoon rain timing or a confirmed heat dome over the capital could alter the settlement outcome before the 12:00 UTC cutoff. No official announcements are scheduled today, but real-time data from RKSI will be the sole catalyst for resolution [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.