Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s July 2nd high temperature is currently priced at 0% for any outcome above the market’s baseline, yet the frontrunner on Polymarket is 28°C at 52%, with 27°C trailing at 26%[1]. This stark divergence between the “YES” probability and the conditional token distribution reflects how USDC liquidity on Polygon is being allocated across temperature brackets rather than a binary yes/no bet. The market resolves based on the Incheon Intl Airport Station’s peak reading via Wunderground, not Seoul’s urban core, which introduces a critical geographic nuance for traders.

Historically, July in South Korea is the wettest month, dominated by the monsoon season (Jangma) that typically spans late June to mid-July, often pushing daily highs close to 30°C while humidity makes it feel like over 34°C[2]. Last week’s Seoul July 1 market surged 41% in 24 hours, with the 30°C bracket sitting at 69.5% just hours before resolution[3], suggesting that even during heavy rain, temperatures can spike sharply. The current 0% “YES” probability likely misreads this volatility, as recent AccuWeather data shows July 2026 highs ranging from 81°F to 91°F (27°C–33°C), with an average of 85°F (29°C)[5].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range heatwave forecasts and precipitation probabilities, which currently show only 10–30% chance of rain but rising humidity levels[6][9]. The Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July may also influence local microclimates, though its direct impact on Incheon’s readings remains uncertain[2]. With settlement ending 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z, conditional token prices on Polymarket will likely converge toward the 28°C bracket as real-time data from Wunderground updates, overriding the current binary mispricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.