Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 20 July 2026, with the market betting on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport. The contract currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range defined for a positive resolution. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens, locking in positions based on Wunderground’s official daily high for the RKSI station.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as rational rather than speculative. July in Seoul typically sees average highs around 28°C (83°F), with lows near 21°C (70°F), and extreme spikes rarely breach the upper thresholds required for YES in most narrow-range markets [1]. Comparable cases from previous summers show that while heatwaves occur, the Incheon station often records slightly lower peaks than central Seoul due to coastal influence, further reducing the likelihood of the specific temperature range triggering a YES resolution.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave advisories and real-time Wunderground updates for the RKSI station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns from the Yellow Sea could alter the final reading, though current forecasts suggest stable, typical mid-summer conditions. The market’s 0% price reflects this stability, with no immediate catalysts expected to push temperatures into the contested range before the on-chain resolution.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.