Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with the 25th falling squarely within the region's hottest period. The settlement mechanism tracks the single highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station on that date, measured in Celsius and resolved against Wunderground's historical archive. The current 0% YES probability on Polymarket reflects conditional token pricing where traders have assigned negligible likelihood to the market's upper temperature ranges, though the specific threshold triggering YES remains unspecified in available documentation.

Historical records show Seoul's July temperatures cluster around 28–32°C for daily highs, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 35°C during heat waves. The city's 1994 record high of 39.6°C remains the benchmark for exceptional summer conditions. Incheon Airport, situated near the coast, typically records slightly cooler maxima than central Seoul due to maritime influence, generally 1–3°C lower than downtown stations. This geographic distinction matters for traders calibrating expectations: coastal location moderates but does not eliminate heat extremes.

The Korea Meteorological Administration issues seasonal forecasts and heat-wave alerts typically in June, providing early signals for July conditions. Traders should monitor June 2026 announcements regarding expected atmospheric patterns, particularly the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity that could alter temperature trajectories. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked through NOAA updates, influence East Asian summer temperatures months in advance and warrant attention as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.