Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether Seoul’s highest temperature on 4 July 2026 will reach exactly 29°C, a threshold that currently trades at a 30.5% implied probability on Polymarket, despite the crowd-implied YES probability for the broader market sitting at 0%. On the Polygon chain, this contract is priced in USDC using conditional tokens, meaning traders are betting on a specific temperature bracket rather than a binary outcome, with NO favoured at $0.70 as the market-favored side.

Historical July data for South Korea shows average daytime highs near 28°C, with peaks often closing to 30°C, while humidity can push the felt temperature over 34°C during midday; however, July is also the rainiest month, with 12 rainy days on average and 289 mm of rainfall, making a clear 29°C peak less certain than dry-season forecasts might suggest. The 30.5% probability for 29°C reflects traders viewing it as the single most likely outcome, yet still a minority call, as six other temperature brackets share the remaining probability.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for shower activity and precipitation intensity, as even slight rain can suppress peak temperatures, and watch for the Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July, which may influence local humidity patterns though it occurs after the settlement window. Recent travel tips from JustKTravel confirm that July brings the year’s highest chance of rain, reinforcing the need to track real-time weather updates before the noon KST resolution deadline.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.