Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this Polymarket contract. Today, the market prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, likely due to expectations of mild early-summer conditions rather than extreme heat.

Historical data frames this low probability as rational, with long-term averages for Seoul in June showing daytime maximums typically reaching 26°C and rarely exceeding 28°C, while the highest maximum recorded so far this month was 34.0°C on 19 June, suggesting a cooling trend is more probable than a spike [1][2][9]. The monsoon season usually begins in late June, bringing increased humidity and short afternoon showers that often cap peak temperatures, making a sudden, record-breaking heatwave less likely than in July or August [2][7].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, as clear skies with light easterly winds could temporarily elevate temperatures, though current models indicate clear conditions with a feel of 28°C and zero precipitation probability [4]. Additionally, watch for official announcements regarding the onset of the rainy season, as the increasing humidity toward the end of June typically prevents temperatures from reaching the intense levels seen in midsummer, reinforcing the current market consensus [2]. No major heat advisories have been issued recently, and the weather remains manageable compared to the sticky, exhausting heat of July, further supporting the 0% YES pricing [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.