Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 27 June 2026 at the Incheon International Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for Seoul in June shows daily highs typically ranging between 19°C and 28°C, with an average high near 28°C [1][5]. The average warmest day in June reaches 28.06°C, while the coldest day drops to 13.6°C, indicating that extreme heat above 30°C is uncommon in early summer [6]. Given that June marks the start of Korea’s monsoon season, with increasing humidity and afternoon showers, the likelihood of a record-breaking high temperature is low, which aligns with the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome [1][2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time temperature logs for the Incheon station, as these are the definitive resolution sources [4]. A recent MBC News report from 27 June 2026 noted a daytime high of 32°C in Seoul with a “Very High” UV index, suggesting that while 32°C is possible, it remains an outlier rather than a norm for this date [9]. The monsoon period, which typically spans late June to mid-July, often suppresses peak temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, making sustained highs above 30°C less probable [2]. On-chain, the market resolves via conditional tokens on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 27 June 2026, so timely data access is critical for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.