Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% implied probability for the "YES" outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range defined for resolution. This on-chain pricing, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, reflects a market conviction that the day’s peak heat will not trigger the winning condition, despite Seoul’s typical June highs.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: June daily highs in Seoul usually climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F, while recent summers have seen record-breaking heat across South Korea, including a national peak of 41.0°C in Hongcheon in 2023 and Seoul itself reaching 39.6°C in 2018[1][2][7]. Even with South Korea’s second-hottest July recorded in 2025 and the hottest summer average since 1973 in 2025, the 0% price implies the market expects temperatures to stay below the threshold required for this specific range[3][5].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s live updates for Incheon as the settlement window closes, particularly any sudden shifts in shortwave solar energy or cloud cover that could spike temperatures[1][6]. Recent reports from Al Jazeera confirm that South Korea is experiencing its hottest summers in history, making real-time weather dependencies critical for validating whether the 0% price is justified or if a late surge could alter the outcome[5]. The resolution hinges entirely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 30 June at Incheon, available via the official Wunderground history page.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.