Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai will record a daily high temperature on 14 August 2026, measured at Pudong International Airport Station and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary section. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% implied probability on Polygon, suggesting either a technical settlement issue or minimal liquidity in USDC-denominated conditional tokens at present.

Historical August temperatures in Shanghai show consistent patterns: the city experiences peak summer heat during mid-August, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C. Data from the past decade indicates that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur roughly 30–40% of August days, whilst readings above 38°C are less frequent but not exceptional. The 0% crowd probability appears disconnected from climatic norms, suggesting traders should examine whether the market has experienced proper price discovery or whether resolution mechanics have deterred participation.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for Shanghai. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late July and early August could materially affect pressure systems and cloud cover over the Yangtze River Delta, potentially suppressing peak temperatures. Additionally, verification of Weather Underground's data collection methodology at Pudong—particularly whether equipment maintenance or sensor changes occur before mid-August—remains critical for settlement certainty, given the market's explicit reliance on the Daily Observations table rather than alternative temperature sources.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.