Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the Shanghai Pudong airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, which implies the market is effectively treating a qualifying high for 9 August as absent or vanishingly unlikely. Because the position is settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, the quoted price is less a forecast of the weather itself than a live read on whether traders think the official Weather Underground Daily Observations table will land in the contract’s target temperature band before the settlement window closes.

For context, Shanghai in August is normally hot and humid, with long-run summaries showing typical daytime maxima around the low 30s Celsius and occasional peaks into the mid-30s. That matters here because the market resolves on the *highest recorded observation* at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, not the Day High & Low summary, so a brief afternoon spike can be enough to change the outcome. Current public forecasts point to a much cooler, wetter day than a classic August heat event: AccuWeather shows 85°F/29°C with heavy rain, and other forecast pages cluster around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with rain and strong wind reducing the odds of an extreme reading.[3][6][12][19]

A trader should watch the overnight and early-morning model updates, plus the station’s actual observations once the day begins, because the highest value can be set by a short-lived pulse before rain arrives. The main dependency is the Weather Underground feed for that specific station and date; if that table prints a higher reading than the summary section, the table controls resolution. In practice, the key catalyst is whether the forecasted rain band slows heating enough to keep the airport station below the relevant threshold, or whether a late morning warm-up produces a brief higher observation before the weather turns.[3][10][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.