Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s July 12, 2026, high temperature at Pudong Airport is the real-world event determining this Polymarket contract, yet the market currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying traders see no chance of the temperature hitting the implied threshold. On-chain, this conditional token trades in USDC on Polygon, where liquidity reflects a near-total consensus that the day will not breach the upper bound of the resolution range.

Historically, July in Shanghai averages 27°C to 36°C, with 7–15 days exceeding 35°C, and extreme peaks reaching 40.9°C in recent years [1][2][4]. The all-time record of 40.8°C was set in August 2013, but July routinely delivers highs near 39–40°C during heatwaves [2][3]. Given that 0% probability suggests the market expects temperatures well below even moderate extremes, the pricing appears misaligned with typical July volatility unless the threshold is set unusually high.

Traders should monitor the National Climate Center’s daily heatwave bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time station feed for Pudong Airport, as sudden monsoon showers or typhoon precursors could suppress temperatures [4][5]. Reuters reported China’s July 2024 as the hottest month on record nationally, averaging 23.21°C, signalling a warming trend that could elevate 2026’s peaks [10]. No official announcements are scheduled for July 12 itself, but regional ozone and humidity indices will act as immediate catalysts for temperature spikes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.