Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be recorded at the Pudong International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. Today, Polymarket prices the YES outcome for any temperature above the current settlement threshold at 0%, implying the crowd expects the day’s maximum to fall within the lowest bracket. The contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens lock capital until the Wunderground daily history for ZSPD confirms the official reading.

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai sees maximums between 34°C and 38°C at Pudong, with 39°C occurring only during extreme heatwaves. The July 15 market already settled at 39°C with 100% confidence, suggesting the heatwave is active and may persist [3]. A 0% probability today likely reflects a mispricing or an expectation of a sharp cooldown, though comparable cases show temperatures rarely drop below 32°C during such sustained high-pressure systems.

Traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s daily heatwave advisories and the 00:00 UTC release of Wunderground’s preliminary data, which often precedes the final confirmed value. Recent forecasts indicate thunderstorms and broken clouds at Pudong, which could suppress peak temperatures if rainfall intensifies before midday [2]. Any official announcement of a heatwave downgrade or a sudden shift in wind direction from the south would act as a catalyst, potentially shifting probabilities away from the current 0% stance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.