Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s peak heat on 17 July 2026 is the real-world event this contract tracks, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for any outcome other than the specific ranges offered. On Polymarket, traders use USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens representing temperature brackets; the frontrunner is 38°C at 64% probability, while 39°C sits at 26% [1]. This pricing implies the crowd expects the day’s maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station to land squarely in the 38°C bracket, not outside it.

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai regularly sees highs between 36°C and 39°C, with 38°C a common peak during stable, high-pressure summer spells. The current 0% YES probability for non-38°C outcomes aligns with that pattern, suggesting traders view deviations as unlikely unless a sudden weather shift occurs. Comparable cases from recent summers show that when humidity rises without cloud cover, temperatures often stabilise near 38°C rather than spiking further.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history feed for ZSPD, the official resolution source, and watch for any meteorological bulletins from China’s National Meteorological Centre regarding heatwaves or rain fronts ahead of 17 July. A sudden change in wind direction or an incoming typhoon could disrupt the 38°C consensus, but no such alerts have been issued yet. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026, locking in the final recorded maximum temperature for that day [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.