Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer heat peaks in late July, with the city's subtropical climate typically producing daily highs between 32°C and 36°C during this period. The settlement mechanism resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport Station on 25 July 2026, sourced from Wunderground's historical data. Polymarket currently prices this contract with zero probability assigned to any outcome, reflecting either sparse liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve in-the-money. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can enter conditional token positions across the available ranges, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date.

Historical Shanghai weather data from the past decade shows late-July highs clustering between 33°C and 35°C in most years, though anomalies do occur. The city recorded 40.9°C in August 2013 and has experienced multiple days above 37°C during summer months, suggesting tail-risk outcomes remain plausible despite their rarity. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects low trading volume rather than genuine consensus that extreme temperatures are impossible.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from China's Meteorological Administration and track any El Niño or La Niña patterns that could influence East Asian summer temperatures in 2026. Regional heatwave warnings issued in June or early July would serve as meaningful catalysts, as would any unusual atmospheric blocking patterns reported by meteorological services. Shanghai's urban heat island effect, concentrated in the airport's immediate vicinity, occasionally produces readings 1–2°C higher than surrounding areas during peak afternoon hours.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.