Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 3 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current Polymarket pricing shows a 0% probability for the "YES" outcome, implying the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range. This near-zero valuation is stark when framed against historical July data for Shanghai, where average highs typically peak between 31°C and 38°C, with 38°C recorded in July 2025[1]. However, climate data specifically for 3 July identifies it as the coldest day in the first ten days of the month, with a historical average of only 24.3°C[3]. This divergence between the general July heat and the specific coolness of 3 July explains the current 0% pricing; traders are betting the temperature will not reach the upper threshold of the range.

Traders should monitor immediate weather forecasts and any announcements regarding the "plum rain" season, which can bring sudden cooling showers to Shanghai in early July[1]. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground data for the Pudong station, making the timing of the 3 PM peak heat critical, as temperatures generally remain below 28°C before 11:00 AM and after 5:00 PM[1]. Recent forecasts indicate warm conditions with a maximum of 30°C expected on Saturday, suggesting the temperature may hover near the lower end of typical July ranges rather than the extreme highs[8]. On-chain mechanics on Polygon, using USDC and conditional tokens, will resolve based on this specific data point, so any deviation from the 30°C forecast could shift the probability rapidly. The market remains sensitive to the precise timing of the daily peak, which usually occurs around 3 PM, and any unexpected cloud cover or rain could keep temperatures well below the range threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.