Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 5 July 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% YES, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not fall into the specific range being traded, despite July being Shanghai’s hottest month. Historical data shows daily highs in July at Pudong typically reach 30–32°C (86–90°F), rarely dropping below 24°C (75°F) or exceeding 35°C (95°F)[1][5]. The average high is 31°C (87°F), with growing degree days rising rapidly through the month, indicating sustained heat accumulation[1][6].

Traders should monitor thundery showers and heavy rain forecasts for 5 July, as these conditions can suppress peak temperatures significantly. BBC Weather currently reports thundery showers and light east-southeast winds for Hongqiao, with a high of 29°C (84°F) and 84% humidity[3]. Severe thunderstorm clusters are also expected near Pudong, which may further limit temperature spikes[2]. The key dependency is whether rain persists through midday; if it clears by afternoon, temperatures could rebound toward the seasonal average. USDC settlements on Polygon via conditional tokens will resolve once Wunderground publishes the official 24-hour maximum[1]. No moralising is needed—only the facts of weather patterns and on-chain mechanics matter for this trade.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.