Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 7 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this weather contract, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance that the temperature exceeds the upper threshold of the defined range. On Polymarket, this conditional token is trading at zero USDC on the Polygon network, reflecting a crowd consensus that the event is effectively impossible under current conditions.

Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs reaching 87°F (30.6°C) and frequent peaks above 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells[5][6]. Current forecasts for 7 July show a maximum of 33°C at 14:00, with humidity at 84% and clear skies[1][2]. Given that the market’s 0% probability implies the threshold is set well above 33°C, the historical pattern of extreme heat suggests the current pricing may be misaligned unless the threshold is exceptionally high.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in temperature trends or weather model revisions[1]. A key catalyst is the scheduled release of hourly data from the National Weather Service for ZSPD, which could confirm whether temperatures are trending toward the threshold[4]. No major weather announcements are expected today, but any deviation from the 33°C forecast could signal a shift in market sentiment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.