Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 30 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the crowd currently pricing a 31% chance that it falls within the specified range. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0.31 USDC per share on the Polygon network, reflecting conditional token mechanics where buyers speculate on USDC settlement tied to the Wunderground temperature record. The market resolves only when the official daily high is confirmed, making the on-chain price a direct barometer of real-time weather sentiment rather than abstract probability.

Historical data frames this 31% probability as cautious but plausible, given that June highs at Pudong typically climb from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F[1]. Summer climates in Shanghai regularly surpass 30°C (86°F), with peaks reaching 35°C (95°F) under intense sun[4], while June remains the wettest month with 6.3 inches of average precipitation[6]. These patterns suggest that temperatures in the target range are not anomalous, yet the 25% thunderstorm risk forecast for 30 June introduces volatility that could suppress the daily high[5].

Traders should monitor the 14-day forecast updates for Pudong, particularly the 90% light rain probability and thunderstorm risk listed for 30 June, which may cap the peak temperature[5]. The dependency on Wunderground’s official daily high means any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation timing could alter the settlement value, so real-time meteorological bulletins from the National Weather Service for ZSPD are critical[2]. No official announcements are expected, but the on-chain price will react instantly to any new weather data released before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.