Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Shenzhen airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying the chance of the Wunderground reading landing in a YES band is negligible. For users holding conditional tokens on Polygon, that means the current USDC price is near the floor, with settlement determined by the highest temperature logged at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station during the on-chain market’s resolution window.

The historical shape of Shenzhen in August explains why traders read that low price cautiously but not as certainty. August is typically hot and humid, with average highs around 32–32.2°C and occasional peaks well above 36°C; independent climate sources put the monthly record high near 38–40°C, and one dataset shows August daily highs can range up to about 36°C on some dates.[4][7][16] More broadly, August highs in Shenzhen are usually around 89–90°F, with rare excursions above 93°F, which keeps the tail risk of a very hot day alive even if the baseline is ordinary summer heat.[6][8]

For the short term, the main catalysts are the local forecast, rainfall timing, and whether any late-season tropical system disrupts the day before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. Shenzhen’s August weather is often rain-prone and typhoon-sensitive, with several sources describing the month as hot, muggy, and frequently wet, so a cloudier, stormier pattern can cap the day’s maximum even when humidity stays high.[4][18][19] Traders watching the market on Polygon are therefore focusing on whether morning sunshine gives way to sustained convection or heavy rain, because that is what most directly affects the single daily high that Wunderground will publish for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.