Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is currently implying no chance that Shenzhen’s highest recorded temperature on 9 August 2026 lands in the YES range. On Polymarket, the trade settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters at expiry is the final temperature band confirmed from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station, not the headline day-high summary.[20]

That pricing looks consistent with the seasonal baseline, but it is also an extreme reading rather than a forecast of the most likely hourly high. Late-summer Shenzhen is usually hot and humid, and the day-ahead forecasts in the search results cluster around the mid-30s Celsius, with several services pointing to highs near 35–36°C and one official-style regional forecast listing Shenzhen at 28–35°C under cloudy conditions.[7][10][14] Comparable August data for Shenzhen also show typical highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, which means the market is effectively asking whether the airport observation will print into a specific upper band rather than simply be “hot”.[15][18][19]

For traders, the main catalyst is the intraday evolution of heat, cloud cover, and thunderstorms, because Shenzhen forecasts currently mention cloudiness, a rainstorm warning, and thunderstorm risk during the afternoon.[1][3] The key dependency is the Weather Underground hourly feed for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, since the settlement source is the Daily Observations table; if the station’s observed maximum pushes a band boundary, that changes the resolution outcome even if the broader forecast looked unchanged earlier in the day.[20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.