Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 will be recorded at the Bao’an International Airport Station, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily peak in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket today, the contract trades at 0% probability for the YES outcome, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specified range, though the market remains open until 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026.

Historically, July in Shenzhen sees daytime averages near 32°C, with frequent peaks reaching 34–35°C amid subtropical high pressure, though typhoon activity can suppress temperatures and increase rainfall to around 339 mm across 17 rainy days in the month[1]. The current 0% pricing suggests traders believe the day will be unusually cool or that the range is misaligned with typical July maxima, but past data shows high temperatures commonly exceed 32°C, making a low-temperature outlier the key risk to the current consensus.

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Bao’an station and watch for typhoon forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, as incoming systems could abruptly lower peak temperatures. No official announcements are scheduled for 20 July, but the settlement depends entirely on the single daily maximum recorded, so any cloud cover or rain early in the day will be decisive. The market resolves in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with liquidity thin at 0% pricing, meaning small trades could shift implied probability significantly if new weather data emerges.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.