Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome on this specific market contract sits at 0%, yet the broader Polymarket pool heavily favours 32°C (44.5%) or 31°C (31.5%), reflecting climatological norms and the ongoing Southwest Monsoon[1]. Historical data confirms July average highs in Singapore are 31°C, with daytime temperatures rarely exceeding 34°C (93°F)[2]. Past comparable cases, such as the 34°C peak recorded on 6 May 2010, suggest that while extremes occur, the 32°C range remains the most statistically probable outcome for mid-year tropical conditions[8].

Traders should monitor the Southwest Monsoon schedule and any sudden shower announcements, as July typically brings 150mm of rainfall across 19 days, often peaking around 1 pm[3]. The resolution source relies strictly on Wunderground data for Changi Airport, meaning any sensor anomalies or station-specific updates could shift conditional token valuations on the Polygon network[1]. Recent forecasts indicate daily highs ranging from 84° to 91°F (29°C to 33°C), with overnight lows between 78° and 81°F, reinforcing the 31°C to 32°C bracket as the primary trading zone[7]. Since settlement ends 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, USDC liquidity will react instantly to real-time weather feeds, making the 1 pm rainfall window a critical catalyst for price discovery.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.