Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Singapore Changi Airport high-temperature contract with **31°C** leading at 35% and **30°C** close behind at 32%, so the market is effectively clustering around a narrow band rather than leaning to an extreme. Because the contract settles off the highest reading at Singapore Changi Airport Station on Wunderground and pays out through conditional tokens on Polygon in USDC, traders are mainly positioning around where the day’s peak will land inside that range, not whether Singapore will be broadly hot.[1]

That framing matters because Singapore’s July climate is usually warm, humid and rain-prone, which tends to cap upside unless sunshine holds through the afternoon. Historical July averages point to frequent rainfall — around 150 mm across the month over roughly 19 days — so intraday cloud cover and showers can blunt the maximum temperature even when the air feels oppressive.[2] The current 0% crowd-implied probability is therefore best read as a market signal about the contract’s outcome bands, not as a claim that the city will be cool.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s observed weather pattern rather than scheduled announcements: morning cloud, timing of showers, and any late-day sunshine can shift the maximum by a degree or two before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. Singapore has also seen repeated discussion of urban heat and record temperatures, with local commentary highlighting heat island effects and the role of clouds, greenery and built environment in shaping peak readings.[3] On Polymarket, that means monitoring live conditions matters more than headlines, because share prices can move quickly as new temperature data feeds into expectations.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.