Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily high for all times that day. July is the hottest month at this location, where average highs reach 92°F (33.3°C), and historical peaks have exceeded 39°C, as seen when Taipei hit 39.7°C in a record-breaking year [4][9].

Polymarket currently prices the 36°C outcome at 37%, with 35°C trailing at 35%, indicating strong crowd confidence in temperatures near or above that threshold [1]. This contrasts sharply with the 0% YES probability for the current contract’s binary framing, suggesting the market views the binary “will it be 36°C?” as too narrow compared to the range-based resolution. On-chain, trades settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where liquidity flows reflect real-time sentiment shifts as weather forecasts update.

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s daily forecasts and any tropical cyclone announcements from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which can suppress temperatures via cloud cover and rain [7]. A recent heatwave in East Asia, cited by local media, has already pushed regional temperatures above 38°C, reinforcing the likelihood of high readings in Taipei [9]. Dependencies include the timing of the settlement window (ending 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z) and Wunderground’s data latency, which may delay final confirmation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.