Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei's summer heat on 25 July 2026 will be measured against historical norms that have shifted noticeably over recent decades. The city's July average high sits around 33–34°C, though the record for any single day in July reaches 37.3°C, set in 2020. The 0% crowd probability on Polymarket suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity at the extremes of the range. Since this market settles on Wunderground's recorded high at Taipei Songshan Airport Station—the official weather reference point—the resolution hinges entirely on instrumental readings rather than forecasts or modelled data.

Taiwan's meteorological patterns in late July reflect the tail end of the East Asian summer monsoon, with occasional typhoon systems capable of suppressing temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. The 2024 summer saw multiple days exceeding 36°C across northern Taiwan, establishing recent precedent for sustained heat. Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's typhoon tracking in the week preceding settlement, as any tropical system approaching the Taiwan Strait could materially alter the daily high. The Central Weather Administration's official forecasts, typically issued five to seven days ahead, will provide the most actionable signal for conditional token positioning on Polygon before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 July.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.