Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** for a Tokyo Haneda Airport high above the market’s chosen band, so the contract is effectively treating an extreme late-summer spike as negligible. The event itself is straightforward: the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 1 August 2026, with resolution tied to Wunderground’s daily history page, and settlement finishing at 12:00 UTC, which leaves the afternoon Japan-time heat still to play out.

That zero price sits against a market that usually carries meaningful August heat risk. Tokyo’s August averages are around **31°C** to **34°C** for highs, with long-run weather data showing the city can and does run hotter in peak summer, even if sub-35°C readings are more common than record-breaking extremes[1][3][8][11]. The broader Japan heat backdrop is also firm: Reuters reported record national temperatures in August 2025, with Japan’s meteorological authority warning on dangerous heat conditions as readings rose above prior highs[16]. For a conditional token market funded in USDC on Polygon, that means traders are not pricing the median day; they are pricing whether Haneda clears the specific threshold before the settlement cut-off.

The main catalysts are local weather evolution rather than scheduled announcements. Traders should watch Tokyo radar, afternoon convective development, sea-breeze strength, and any late-morning forecast upgrades from major weather services, because Haneda’s reading is sensitive to the day’s peak window rather than an all-day average[1][12]. If the morning starts subdued, the contract can still move on a hot surge into early afternoon JST, but a cloudier or wetter pattern would reinforce the current 0% pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.