Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement tied to whichever temperature range bracket contains that single highest reading in Celsius. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES across the board, reflecting either incomplete order book depth or a technical settlement state rather than genuine trader indifference to any particular temperature band.

August in Tokyo typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events pushing toward 38–40°C occur roughly once per decade. The 2023 summer saw Haneda record 37.5°C on multiple days, whilst the 2010 heatwave produced readings above 39°C across the Kanto region. Historical volatility suggests the most probable range clusters around 33–36°C, with tail risk extending upward if a high-pressure system stalls over central Japan during that specific date. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its Day High & Low summary matters operationally; traders should verify which station data feeds into each source, as discrepancies have occasionally affected settlement on similar weather contracts.

Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and seasonal pattern data become actionable from late July onwards, roughly three weeks before settlement. Any official heat-wave warnings issued in early August would shift probability mass toward higher temperature brackets. Traders should monitor upper-atmosphere pressure patterns and tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during the preceding week, as both influence whether August 12 falls within a cooler or hotter phase of the month. USDC settlement on Polygon executes against the resolved bracket once Haneda's official reading is published.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.