Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 19 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by which temperature range bracket contains that peak reading. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all outcomes, suggesting either minimal trading activity or a technical pricing anomaly typical of weather contracts with distant settlement dates and low liquidity on Polygon.

Historical August temperatures at Haneda provide the empirical anchor for calibrating expectations. Tokyo's August averages hover around 29–31°C, with daily highs typically ranging 32–35°C; extreme heat events pushing above 37°C occur roughly once per decade during the month. The 2023 summer saw persistent temperatures in the 34–36°C band throughout August, whilst the notably cooler 2020 August peaked around 33°C. These patterns suggest the market's current zero-probability reading across all brackets reflects insufficient trader participation rather than genuine forecasting consensus.

Monitoring Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026 will be essential, particularly their extended outlook for Pacific high-pressure systems and potential typhoon activity that could suppress temperatures. Traders should note that Weather Underground's Daily Observations table occasionally diverges from summary figures due to timestamp precision and station-specific recording methods; verifying the exact measurement methodology before settlement becomes critical. The USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon will reflect updated probabilities only as trading volume increases closer to the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.