Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is currently bracing for peak summer heat as July 13, 2026, unfolds, with the highest temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station yet to be recorded for the day. On Polymarket, this weather contract trades at a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the specific temperature range in question is virtually impossible given current conditions. Traders holding USDC on the Polygon network can still adjust positions using conditional tokens, though the near-zero pricing reflects a strong consensus that the threshold will not be met.

Historical data frames this extreme pricing against Japan’s recent record-breaking heatwaves. In July 2025, the nation set a new all-time high of 41.2°C in Tamba City, and July 2025 was confirmed as the hottest July since records began in 1898, with temperatures soaring past 41°C in multiple cities [5][7][10]. However, the specific Haneda Airport forecast for July 2026 predicts daily highs between 29°C and 33°C (76°F to 91°F), which sits well below the national extremes seen recently [1]. This disparity between national records and local airport forecasts explains why the market assigns almost no chance to the higher temperature range.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Japan Meteorological Agency and live Wunderground feeds for the Haneda station, as the market resolves strictly on the day’s highest recorded figure [3]. Any sudden announcement of an intensifying heatwave or a deviation from the 29–33°C forecast window could shift odds, but current schedules show no immediate catalysts for such a spike [1]. The settlement depends entirely on the first data point published for 13 July 2026, meaning traders must watch for the official daily high release to confirm if the 0% probability holds or if a surprise spike occurs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.