Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s airport temperature later today will be judged against the **highest reading recorded at Haneda on 23 July**, and Polymarket is currently pricing that outcome at **0% YES**. On Polymarket, traders are backing the contract with **USDC on Polygon**, and the market settles via **conditional tokens** against the Wunderground daily history page for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, so the only figure that matters is the day’s maximum in degrees Celsius by the settlement cut-off.

A zero price is best read as a signal that the crowd sees the specified temperature band as effectively out of reach, not that the weather is irrelevant. July in Tokyo is normally a period of intense heat and humidity, so the market is being framed less by seasonal averages than by whether today’s peak can reach the range in question before noon UTC. Comparable summer Tokyo temperature markets tend to move quickly once the morning baseline, cloud cover and any rain threat become clear, because the recorded daily high can be set early and then stand for the rest of the session.

For traders, the main catalysts are the usual short-horizon weather inputs: updated local forecasts, radar trends, and any change in cloud or rainfall timing that could cap the maximum temperature. Sky’s current forecast for nearby Nishi-Tokyo-shi shows **33°C and sunny**, which is consistent with a warm regional setup but does not guarantee the specific Haneda station reading. The key dependency is the Wunderground history entry itself, since a brief spike before 12:00 UTC can decide the market even if later afternoon heat is higher elsewhere.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.