Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the Haneda Airport high for 31 July at **0% YES** on the USDC-powered Polygon contract, which means the market is implying no meaningful chance that the day’s maximum temperature lands in the YES range before settlement. For a temperature market like this, the practical reference point is the reported daily maximum at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on Wunderground, not the broader Tokyo city forecast, so traders are effectively betting on the station’s realised high rather than an abstract citywide heat reading.

That zero price sits against a climatological backdrop that usually favours a warm outcome in late July. Tokyo’s July highs are typically around the mid-80s Fahrenheit, with WeatherSpark describing 31 July as one of the clearest days of the month and AccuWeather putting today’s forecast near 84°F, which is about 29°C.[16][1] But comparable late-July forecasts also show how quickly rain can cap the maximum: Timeanddate’s Tokyo outlook for 31 July points to thunderstorms and an upper temperature around 79°F, while Japan’s weather bureau had separately flagged a very hot Tokyo forecast of 36°C earlier in the cycle.[2][5] That spread is the key read-through for conditional-token pricing: a market can look “obvious” on seasonal averages, yet still settle below a threshold if cloud cover and storms arrive at the wrong hour.

The main catalysts are the intraday forecast updates, not policy or event risk. Traders should watch whether the afternoon convection over Kanto strengthens, because showers or thunderstorms can hold down the eventual high even after a warm morning, and Haneda’s airport reading can differ from central Tokyo’s forecast by a degree or more.[2][12] The market resolves off the highest reading recorded on Wunderground for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, so the relevant dependency is the station’s realised max by 12:00 UTC settlement, with the on-chain position paying out in conditional tokens according to the temperature band that contains that figure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.