Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 4 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Today, Polymarket prices the contract for a specific temperature range at 0% YES, implying the crowd believes the event will not hit that threshold. This on-chain market, settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects a stark divergence from historical patterns where July highs in Tokyo routinely exceed 30°C.

Historical data frames this probability as anomalous rather than predictive. The hot season in Tokyo spans from late June to mid-September, with average daily highs consistently above 79°F (26°C) [5]. Recent records show Japan hitting 41.2°C in Hyogo Prefecture last year [6], while Tokyo’s average July temperature sits at 28.7°C with 77.6% humidity [7]. Even the current forecast for Haneda in July 2026 predicts daily highs between 76°F and 91°F (24°C to 33°C) [3], suggesting the 0% pricing ignores typical seasonal volatility.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s heatwave warnings and daily weather bulletins for Tokyo, as these directly influence temperature spikes. A recent Reuters report highlighted Japan’s record-breaking heat in 2025, underscoring the volatility of summer temperatures [6]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s published data for Haneda Airport, so any delay in data publication or sudden shifts in forecast models could alter the market outcome. Watch for announcements regarding extreme heat alerts, which often precede record highs in urban areas like Tokyo.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.