Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak heat recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026, a date that historically falls within the intense summer humidity of the Kanto region. Current Polymarket pricing for this contract shows a stark divergence from the user’s premise: the market assigns a 50% probability to a 26°C outcome, with 25°C at 30%, rather than a 0% chance for the "Yes" bin on any specific threshold [1]. This on-chain pricing, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, reflects a market consensus that temperatures will likely remain moderate rather than scorching, despite the seasonal context.

Historical comparables frame this probability against Tokyo’s typical July highs, which AccuWeather forecasts between 79°F and 90°F (26°C to 32°C) for the month, with an average high of 88°F (31°C) [3]. Agate Travel notes that daytime temperatures in July 2026 usually stabilise around 28–33°C (82–91°F), suggesting that a 26°C peak is plausible if cloud cover or sea breezes intervene [6]. The current frontrunner of 26°C implies traders are betting on a cooler-than-average day, contrasting with the typical 31°C average, which aligns with the market’s 50% confidence in this specific bin [1].

Traders should monitor the upcoming weather schedules for the Kanto region, specifically any announcements regarding the "stuffy plum rainy season" or sudden sea breeze shifts that could suppress peak temperatures [6]. While no specific recent news announcement dictates this outcome, the dependency on Wunderground’s resolution data for the Haneda station means traders must watch for real-time METAR updates that could confirm cloud density or wind patterns [2]. The settlement window ending 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z requires precise tracking of the first published data point, as the market resolves only once this resolution source publishes its initial reading for the date [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.