Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo on 30 June 2026 is entering its peak hot season, with Haneda Airport historically recording daily highs between 28°C and 30°C during late June. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the market “Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?” reflects a near-certainty that the day’s peak will not fall into the lowest temperature range offered, likely below 24°C. This aligns with 2026’s June forecast, which shows daily highs ranging from 75°F to 83°F (24°C to 28°C), and the average high for June sitting at 80°F (27°C)[2].

Historical precedents reinforce this reading: in 2025, Japan recorded its highest temperature ever at 41.2°C after the hottest June on record, and Tokyo itself hit 36.4°C in a record-breaking heatwave that year[5][8]. Even in more moderate years, late June in Tokyo consistently exceeds 28°C, with 2024 seeing 10 consecutive days above 35°C[10]. These cases make the 0% probability for the lowest range a rational market stance, not an outlier.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat advisories and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Haneda Airport, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns can alter peak temperatures. The on-chain mechanics of this Polymarket contract—settling in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens—mean liquidity will react swiftly to any official temperature announcements. Recent reports from The Straits Times highlight how Tokyo’s weather agency has begun issuing more frequent extreme heat warnings, a trend that could push June 30’s peak above 30°C and further validate the market’s current pricing[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.