Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 9 July 2026 was 24°C, driven by a day of heavy rain and persistent cloud cover that suppressed any significant heat buildup. This outcome renders the "36°C or higher" contract, currently priced at 0% on Polymarket, a definitive loss for holders, while the frontrunner "29°C" outcome at 100% also fails to resolve correctly as the actual peak was well below that threshold[1][4].

Historical July data for this location shows daily highs typically averaging around 79°F (26°C), rarely dipping below 70°F (21°C) or exceeding 89°F (32°C), with the highest average occurring on 20 July[3]. While extreme heat events have occurred recently, such as the record-breaking 35.8°C spike in 2023 that prompted Environment Canada heat warnings, the specific weather pattern on 9 July 2026 featured heavy afternoon and evening rain with a maximum of only 24°C, a stark contrast to those dry, scorching precedents[6][7].

Traders monitoring this market should prioritise real-time precipitation forecasts and cloud cover indices, as these are the primary catalysts suppressing temperature peaks in Toronto during summer months. The immediate dependency is the Wunderground resolution source, which will confirm the hourly maximum, and any sudden shifts in regional weather models that might have predicted a heat dome before the rain arrived[1][6]. Recent reports from Environment Canada emphasise that heavy precipitation events, like the 15 mm recorded on this day, are the most reliable indicators of suppressed daily highs, effectively neutralising any potential for extreme heat contracts to succeed[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.