Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices the YES contract for any temperature above the current range at 0% today, reflecting a market consensus that the outcome will fall within the lowest bracket. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, treats the weather data from Wunderground as the definitive resolution source, locking in the 12:00 UTC settlement window for 25 June 2026.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as rational rather than speculative. June 2026 forecasts for Pearson show daily highs ranging from 68°F to 83°F (approximately 20°C to 28°C), with the average daily high sitting near 25°C [5][9]. Notably, 25 June 2025 recorded a high low of 22.9°C, the highest low temperature for that date since 1938, suggesting the day often stays cool [7]. Given that daily highs rarely fall below 60°F (15.5°C) and average around 78°F (25.5°C), the market likely anticipates the temperature will remain within the 24°C or lower bucket, making the YES contract for higher ranges effectively worthless [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service updates for CYYZ and Wunderground’s hourly logs as the primary catalysts for resolution [3][6]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled, the dependency on real-time sensor data means any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind speed could alter the peak reading. Recent precipitation events in April 2026, such as the 6.9 mm rainfall on 18 April, indicate the region’s variable moisture patterns, which can suppress peak temperatures [8]. With the average hourly wind speed constant at 9.0 mph and solar energy steady at 6.8 kWh, the weather profile remains stable, reinforcing the current 0% probability for higher temperature ranges [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.