Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, Warsaw will record a daily high temperature at Chopin Airport Station, and Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue with the market structure. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's historical data feed for that specific station, which captures hourly readings throughout the day. Traders are effectively pricing in zero probability across all outcome brackets, suggesting either no capital has entered the market or the conditional token architecture has failed to distribute liquidity across the range options.

Warsaw's July climate sits firmly within its warm summer pattern, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 23–26°C during this period. The city's 30-year average for late July peaks around 24°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings into the 28–32°C bracket; the record high for July at the airport station stands at 32.4°C, set in 2015. Understanding current pricing requires recognising that zero probability across all ranges is mathematically impossible—the actual high will settle into one bracket—suggesting either a liquidity desert or a market that has not yet attracted meaningful USDC deposits on Polygon.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch European weather forecasting updates from mid-July 2026, particularly from ECMWF or national meteorological institutes, which typically issue reliable 10–14 day outlooks roughly two weeks before the settlement date. Any significant heat dome tracking towards Central Europe would shift implied probabilities sharply towards higher temperature ranges. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 July, giving traders a narrow window to react once the day's peak is recorded and verified on Weather Underground.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.