Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this Wellington temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is assigning essentially no chance that the highest temperature recorded at Wellington Intl Airport on 10 August 2026 lands in the YES range. On Polymarket, the position is backed by USDC on Polygon and settles through conditional tokens, so the key question is not the headline forecast but the exact Celsius band that Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table assigns to the day’s peak reading.

The historical frame still points to a cool winter set-up for Wellington. August normals are around 12°C highs and 9°C lows, with climate summaries putting the month’s average maximum broadly in the low teens Celsius[1][2][8][12]. Weather Underground’s own history pages show recent August daily highs mostly in the low-to-mid teens Celsius equivalent, and the broader record for August in Wellington remains well above freezing but usually far below summer-like heat[7][13][17]. That makes an extreme upside outcome less likely, but it also means a single milder spell can move the day’s maximum enough to matter if the market is split across adjacent temperature bands.

For traders, the live catalysts are the day’s actual synoptic weather over Wellington, any frontal passages, and how quickly Weather Underground updates the Daily Observations table versus the summary box, since the market explicitly resolves to the table if there is a discrepancy[7]. Current forecast services show Wellington’s August highs generally clustered near 12°C to 16°C, with some day-to-day variation and windy, changeable conditions typical of the city[19][20]. The practical check on settlement day is the station’s recorded high in the Daily Observations table at Wellington Intl Airport, not the more visible day summary.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.