Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, Wellington International Airport will record its daily maximum temperature, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing all temperature ranges at 0% probability across the board. This suggests either extreme illiquidity in the contract or a technical issue with market initialisation, as historical August temperatures in Wellington consistently fall within measurable ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters for precision since the two sources occasionally diverge by tenths of a degree.

Wellington's August climate is firmly winter in the Southern Hemisphere, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 11°C to 14°C. The 0% crowd probability across all bins is anomalous given that August temperatures in the region have never failed to register; even the coldest August days on record exceed 8°C. This pricing pattern suggests the market may be awaiting initial liquidity provision or experiencing a display lag, rather than reflecting genuine trader conviction about the likelihood of any particular temperature band.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for Weather Underground's station maintenance schedules or data feed interruptions, which could affect resolution. New Zealand's MetService issues seasonal forecasts in early August that often refine expectations for late-winter conditions. The specific reliance on the Daily Observations table—rather than official NIWA or MetService figures—means any discrepancies between sources could create settlement disputes, making the exact data provenance critical to track as the date approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.