Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 17 August 2026, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing all temperature ranges at zero probability of YES. This disconnect reflects the market's nascent state rather than meteorological certainty—the contract simply lacks sufficient liquidity and trader participation to establish meaningful odds. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground, not the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated systems occasionally diverge from official station records.

August represents mid-winter in Wellington, when daily highs typically range between 11–13°C. Historical data from the past decade shows August temperatures rarely exceed 15°C at the airport station, with extreme highs above 18°C occurring perhaps once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a conventional winter day, though this reflects absence of conviction rather than meteorological impossibility. Unusual anticyclonic systems can push temperatures several degrees above seasonal norms, as occurred in August 2022 when Wellington experienced an unseasonably warm spell.

Traders monitoring this contract should track MetService forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any warnings of high-pressure systems moving across the lower North Island. Sea-surface temperatures around Cook Strait and upper-atmosphere patterns will influence whether warm northerly flows develop. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 August, meaning the highest temperature recorded up to that point determines resolution—afternoon readings after noon won't count, a crucial detail for positions held through the morning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.