Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 21 August 2026, with the market currently pricing all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon's conditional token infrastructure. The settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated weather stations report sub-hourly readings that occasionally diverge from rounded daily summaries. Traders holding YES tokens across any temperature bracket are betting against the crowd's present indifference to this specific date's thermal outcome.

August represents Wellington's late winter transition, when daily highs typically range between 11–14°C at the airport station. Historical data from the past decade shows August 21 specifically has produced highs between 10–15°C, with no extreme outliers recorded. The 0% crowd probability reflects rational baseline scepticism rather than certainty; winter weather in Wellington remains variable enough that any single day's outcome carries genuine uncertainty, yet the market has attracted no meaningful liquidity or contrarian positioning.

Traders should monitor MetService forecasts released in the week preceding 21 August 2026, as any unusual weather system—a rare warm front or blocking high-pressure pattern—could shift expectations materially. The USDC settlement mechanism on Polygon means positions resolve within hours of Weather Underground's official recording, eliminating ambiguity around data delays. Current pricing suggests the market awaits either fresh meteorological signals or sufficient liquidity incentives before meaningful trading activity emerges.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.