Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing a **0% YES** outcome on a contract that settles against the highest temperature recorded at Wellington Intl Airport on 4 August, with buyers posting USDC on Polygon and holding conditional tokens that resolve from the Wunderground daily history page. In practical terms, the market is not asking whether Wellington is warm in an abstract sense; it is asking which Celsius band the airport’s *single warmest reading* lands in before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

The current zero price is broadly consistent with the seasonal baseline. August in Wellington is usually cool, with typical daytime highs around 12°C to 13°C and lows near 9°C, while forecast-style pages for 4 August cluster around roughly 8°C to 13°C rather than anything approaching summer-like warmth[4][8][10][12]. That matters for this market because the resolution uses the day’s maximum observed airport temperature, so even a brief midday spike has to clear the relevant band; historically, late-winter Wellington weather tends to be dominated by cloud, wind and rain, which caps upside unless a dry northerly flow develops.

A trader watching this contract should focus on the airport forecast cycle, any last-minute front timing, and whether a clearing trend arrives near local afternoon time, when the daily high is most likely to be set. Current live observations and short-range forecasts already show cool conditions around Wellington, with one source reporting about 10°C at the airport and others pointing to overcast or showery weather, which is the main reason the market can sit at zero even before settlement begins[5][7][8]. For Polymarket users, the key mechanic is simple: the final bin is determined by the Wunderground airport observation, not by citywide averages or the wider Wellington region.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.