Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington faces a midwinter day on 20 July 2026, with the highest temperature expected to hover near typical July lows for the city’s international airport station. Historical July data for Wellington shows daily maximums rarely exceed 14°C, often settling between 8°C and 12°C due to persistent south-westerly flows and cool maritime influence. The current Polymarket contract prices the 12°C range at 100% probability, while the 0% YES crowd-implied probability for “above 12°C” aligns with this climatic baseline, suggesting the market views any significant warmth as highly improbable [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, which logs the station’s peak temperature for all times on the day. A key catalyst is the forecasted wind speed and direction; BBC Weather currently reports 24 mph south-south-westerly winds at Wellington International Airport, a pattern that typically suppresses temperatures and reinforces the 12°C frontrunner [2]. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: positions settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with the market closing at 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z. No weather announcements or schedule changes are expected to alter this outcome, as July in Wellington is climatically stable and unlikely to produce anomalous heat.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.