Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily high temperature, and this market resolves to whichever range bracket contains that figure in degrees Celsius. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state on Polygon; traders holding YES conditional tokens would profit if the settlement temperature falls within their selected range, whilst NO holders benefit if it falls outside. USDC collateral backs all positions, with payouts determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date.

Wellington's mid-winter climate presents a constrained forecast window. July averages a high of roughly 8–9°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 13°C or falling below 2°C across recorded decades. The airport station, positioned on exposed terrain near Cook Strait, experiences maritime influence that moderates both peaks and troughs. Historical July records show the city has recorded highs in the 15–16°C range during unusually mild years, though such occurrences remain infrequent. Traders assessing range probabilities should weight the likelihood of an ordinary winter day against the tail risk of an anomalous warm spell.

The Southern Hemisphere's winter pattern through late July 2026 will depend on atmospheric circulation and any lingering La Niña or El Niño effects. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) publishes monthly outlooks that traders can cross-reference; their June 2026 forecast would offer the most recent guidance closer to settlement. Synoptic charts in early July will clarify whether a warm northerly flow might push temperatures toward the upper ranges, or whether typical cold southerly systems dominate. Settlement occurs at noon UTC on 21 July, giving traders until that point to adjust positions based on overnight forecasts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.