Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently prices this contract at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, reflecting either extreme uncertainty about which bracket will resolve or a technical pricing anomaly. Traders settling positions in USDC on Polygon will need to monitor the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than the Day High & Low summary, as the resolution criteria explicitly prioritise the granular observational data over headline figures.

August represents Wuhan's hottest month climatologically, with historical daily maxima frequently exceeding 35°C. Between 2015 and 2023, the city recorded August highs ranging from 32°C to 39°C, with most years clustering between 34–37°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either no active liquidity in certain temperature brackets or traders positioning defensively ahead of the settlement window. Comparable summer temperature markets in East Asian cities have shown that late-summer heat waves can push readings into the 38–40°C range, though such extremes remain statistically less frequent than moderate-to-warm outcomes.

Traders should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts regarding high-pressure systems or heat domes affecting central China. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late July could influence atmospheric circulation patterns and modify expected temperatures. The specific reliance on Tianhe Airport station data—rather than urban centre readings—may yield slightly lower figures than some alternative sources, as airport stations typically experience less urban heat island effect than downtown measurement points.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.