Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is treating a sub-range result as effectively off the board even though the event will only settle after the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the final *Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)* for 10 August. The trade is in USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens tied to the Observatory’s daily extract, so the practical risk is not the live temperature reading but whether the final published minimum lands inside the chosen range once the data is finalised.

That zero implied probability sits against a climate profile that is usually uncomfortably warm in August. Hong Kong Observatory normals for 10 August put the mean minimum at about **26.3°C**, while independent history sources show recent early-August lows staying in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius rather than anywhere near cooler bands. Recent August summaries from the Observatory also show the city often running hot and humid, with 2025 and 2024 both posting elevated August minima and very warm daytime conditions[3][10][15].

For traders, the main catalyst is the Observatory’s publication schedule: the market cannot resolve until the relevant daily extract is posted, and the settlement reference is the finalised minimum, not a forecast. Near-term weather matters only insofar as showers or a stronger northerly flow could nudge the overnight low, while the current forecast context points to a very warm day with thunder and showers in Hong Kong on 10 August[11][16][18]. The key dependency is therefore the Observatory dataset itself, plus any late-day weather shift before dawn that affects the official minimum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.