Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature experienced that day across the territory. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to any specific temperature range resolving. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though actual resolution depends on the Observatory publishing its "Absolute Daily Min" figure in the Daily Extract dataset—a process that typically occurs within days of observation but can face delays during extreme weather events or data processing backlogs.

Hong Kong's July climate presents a narrow band of plausible outcomes. Historical data from the Observatory shows July minimum temperatures typically range between 24–26°C, with the lowest recorded July minimum standing at 22.0°C (1967). The territory's tropical monsoon pattern during summer months produces consistently warm overnight conditions, even during the occasional cooler spells driven by passing weather systems. This historical clustering explains why the market shows zero probability—the resolution categories likely include ranges below 22°C that have no precedent in modern records, making them effectively impossible outcomes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early July 2026, as these represent the primary mechanisms for anomalous temperature deviations. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and issues typhoon warnings that could signal conditions capable of producing unusual minima. Settlement hinges entirely on official Observatory data publication; no alternative sources or adjustments apply under the market's terms.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.