Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Hong Kong daily-minimum contract at **3% YES**, so the market is implying that the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **Absolute Daily Min** for 31 July will land in the yes-specified temperature band only rarely. Because settlement is tied to the Observatory’s published Daily Extract, the tokenised position on Polygon, denominated in USDC and cleared through conditional tokens, will resolve only once that file is finalised rather than when intraday readings are first posted.

That low price fits the historical shape of Hong Kong July weather: the month is typically hot, humid and dominated by overnight lows in the high 20s Celsius, with HKO normals putting 31 July’s mean minimum at **26.2°C** and mean temperature at **28.4°C**. Recent July summaries also show how quickly the minimum can stay elevated even after storms; HKO’s July 2023 report said showers and thunderstorms affected 31 July, but the day still improved to sunny periods and the month finished with a mean minimum of **28.0°C**, far above normal. For a YES bet to pay here, the final minimum has to drop into a comparatively cool range versus Hong Kong’s usual end-of-July baseline.

The main trader watchpoint is the Observatory’s publication schedule: the market cannot resolve until the 31 July data appears in the relevant climate extract, and delays in posting can leave the contract open even after the calendar date has passed. Near-term weather context matters less than the final HKO figure, but it still informs expectations if cloud, rain, or a southerly surge suppresses the overnight floor before the morning cut-off. The Hong Kong Observatory’s climate pages are the settlement source, and once that extract is uploaded, the on-chain conditional token position should be straightforward to settle against the published Celsius value.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.