Pronóstico: World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has already seen its first official penalty kick during regular time, awarded to Switzerland, with Breel Embolo converting it successfully. However, high-profile misses are emerging, such as Lionel Messi’s penalty against Austria, which was saved and denied him a record-breaking goal. This market resolves to “Yes” if the total number of missed or saved penalties (excluding shootouts) equals or exceeds the listed threshold, and the current crowd-implied probability sits at just 2% for the “Yes” outcome.

Historically, World Cups rarely produce multiple missed penalties in regular time. The 1994 final featured Roberto Baggio’s iconic miss, while the 2022 tournament saw five shootouts but few regular-time misses. With 2026 adding an extra round (the last 32), BBC Sport notes a higher chance of more shootouts, yet regular-time penalty misses remain scarce. The 2% probability reflects this pattern: most penalties are scored, and misses are outliers.

Traders should monitor upcoming match schedules, referee appointments, and team tactics that influence penalty frequency. CNN’s recent analysis of landmark penalties highlights how pressure and technique shape outcomes. Watch for announcements on VAR decisions and injury updates that may trigger more penalty awards. As the tournament progresses, any spike in missed penalties could shift the odds, but current data suggests the threshold is unlikely to be reached.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.